On January 1, 2025, India and Pakistan exchanged lists of their nuclear installations, marking the 34th consecutive year of this tradition under a longstanding bilateral agreement. This exchange stems from the Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack Against Nuclear Installations and Facilities, signed on December 31, 1988, and operational since January 27, 1991. The agreement mandates that the two nations annually share such lists to foster mutual trust and prevent potential nuclear conflicts.
The 1988 Agreement: A Confidence-Building Measure
The accord was signed by then-Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto during a period of heightened tensions between the two nuclear-capable neighbors. Its primary aim is to ensure the safety and security of nuclear facilities by prohibiting attacks on them. Nuclear installations covered under the agreement include reactors, fuel fabrication facilities, and establishments dealing with radioactive materials.
Each year on January 1, both countries simultaneously exchange these lists through diplomatic channels in New Delhi and Islamabad. The first exchange took place in 1992, a year after the agreement came into force.
Context and Significance
Despite the often-hostile relations between India and Pakistan, this agreement remains one of the few sustained confidence-building measures (CBMs). It underscores a mutual acknowledgment of the catastrophic consequences of nuclear warfare, especially in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
By maintaining this practice, both countries signal their commitment to certain elements of strategic stability, even amid broader geopolitical tensions. Such exchanges are vital, given the enduring conflicts over issues like Kashmir and sporadic cross-border violence.
Historical and Current Implications
This agreement is part of broader efforts during the late 1980s to reduce the risk of armed conflict between the two countries. Other CBMs include direct communication links between military leaders and agreements to avoid incidents at sea. However, the nuclear list exchange stands out due to its consistency.
While it does not address broader concerns of nuclear proliferation or arms buildup, it serves as a foundational measure to ensure that civilian and strategic installations are not targeted during conflicts.
Challenges and Future Prospects
The exchange takes place against the backdrop of fluctuating diplomatic relations, often marked by mistrust. Critics argue that while the practice is symbolically significant, it has not translated into meaningful disarmament or a reduction in regional tensions. Additionally, the agreement’s limited scope excludes other critical aspects of nuclear security, such as missile systems or tactical weapons.
Nevertheless, this annual exchange serves as a reminder that even adversaries can uphold certain principles of restraint. Expanding such agreements to include modern threats, such as cyberattacks on nuclear infrastructure, could strengthen regional security.
India and Pakistan’s adherence to this agreement amidst their complex relationship is a testament to the enduring importance of dialogue and cooperation in preventing nuclear escalation.